A cost-benefit analysis of mass prostate cancer screening

Table 1 Probabilities for entering next stage of screening in each node of the Decision Tree

Nodes	Criteria		Probability (%)	Treatment plan	Probability (%)
PSA test [8]	PSA > 2.5 ng/ml	(40–49) Age	2.4
	PSA > 4.5 ng/ml	(50–54) Age	5.3
	PSA > 6 ng/ml	(55–69) Age	2.6
	PSA > 8 ng/ml	(70–79) Age	6.6
	PSA > 10 ng/ml	80 +	10.3
Doing Biopsy [23]	Any DRE		40.9–60.1
	abnormal DRE		25
			60.1
			77
Positive biopsy Probability [23]	Any DRE		44
			56.1
			60.1
	abnormal DRE		34.1
	abnormal DRE		63.7
Stage of Disease [24]	Low Risk		36.3	Surveillance	9.2
				Prostatectomy	56.7
				Radiotherapy	26.4
				Hormone Therapy	7.6
	Intermediate Risk		36.3	Surveillance	4.8
				Prostatectomy	52.9
				Radiotherapy	30.3
				Hormone Therapy	11.9
	High Risk		15.1	Surveillance	3.2
				Prostatectomy	32.2
				Radiotherapy	31.7
				Hormone Therapy	32.8
	Unknown		12.4	Surveillance	9.9
				Prostatectomy	42.2
				Radiotherapy	28.9
				Hormone Therapy	18.9
Biopsy Complications [25]	Hematospermia		36.3
	Hematuria		14
	Bleeding lasting two days		2.3
	Fever		0.8
	Bleeding requires surgery		0.6
	Urinary retention		0.2
Prostatectomy Complication [26]			17
Radiotherapy Complication [26]			1.6

ISSN: 1478-7547