Table 1 Assumptions used to evaluate policy options in decision tree of national airport screening options for COVID-19, 2021
Epidemiologic parameters | Value | Sensitivity analysis (Min, Max) | References/ Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
Number of reported travellers coming through EBB airport in two weeks during pre-pandemic period* | 67,500 | --- | [7] |
Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among travellers | 0.05 | (0.01, 0.10) | assumption |
Proportion of infected travellers with COVID-19-like symptoms at / shortly after arrival | 0.63 | --- | [29] |
Proportion of travellers with symptoms detected by the screeners through temperature and symptom checks | 0.40 | (0.05, 0.75) | assumption |
Proportion of infected travellers with COVID-19-like symptoms at / shortly after arrival who seek a test | 0.60 | --- | assumption |
Proportion of uninfected travellers symptomatic with COVID-19-like symptoms at / shortly after arrival† | 0.022 | --- | |
Probability that uninfected (true-negative) persons who enter quarantine are infected by others in quarantine who have undetected (false-negative) infections (Option 3) | 0.005 | --- | assumption |
Probability that symptomatic infected persons detected on entry remain infectious at 10 days | 0.02 | --- | [14] |
Probability that asymptomatic infected persons detected on entry remain infectious at 10 days | 0.01 | --- | [31] |
Probability that uninfected (false-positive) person in isolation becomes infected from others (true-positives) (Options 2 & 3)¥ | 0.50 | --- | GA, unpublished data |
Proportion of uninfected travellers with COVID-19-like symptoms who later seek a test ¶ | 0.60 | --- | assumption |
Reproductive number (R) for infected, symptomatic persons | 2.60 | --- | [32] |
Reproductive number (R) for infected, asymptomatic persons | 1.40 | --- | Uganda MoH, unpublished data |
Probability that travellers with COVID-19-like symptoms on arrival are sent for testing (Option 2) | 0.92 | --- | assumption |
Probability that uninfected travellers will be symptomatic with COVID-19-like symptoms and warrant a COVID-19 test | 0.01 | --- | assumption |
Sensitivity of test (RT-PCR) | 0.92 | (0.50, 1.00) | [33] |
Specificity of test (RT-PCR) | 0.98 | --- | [34] |
Cost parameters | Cost ($USD) | [13] | |
Disinfection supplies | $3 | --- | |
Staff (health worker) per person for two weeks (n = 8) | $400 | --- | |
Gowns per person per day | $10 | --- | |
Face masks per person per day | $3 | --- | |
Gloves per person per day | $23 | --- | |
Gumboots per person (one-time cost) | $6 | --- | |
PCR test per person | $65 | ($10, $100) | |
Printing costs per person | $3 | --- | |
Handwashing (alcohol-based hand sanitiser) per person per day | $3 | --- | |
Handheld infrared thermometer | $50 | --- | |
Airport transfer to and from quarantine/isolation per person | $10 | --- | |
Room and board per person per day | $50 | --- |