Table 1 Population and disease epidemiology input data used in the models
Input parameter | Value (range) | Source |
|---|---|---|
C. difficile | ||
Employment rate of UK population age 50 to 64 years, % employed for one hour or more per week | 71 (57; 85) | Office for National Statistics 2021 [21] |
C. difficile patients in working age of 50–64 years, % | 17 (13;20) | Public Health England 2021 [14] |
C. difficile patients aged 65 + years, % | 72 (57; 86) | Public Health England 2021 [14] |
Hypothetical vaccine efficacy, % | 70 (50; 100) | Assumption based on expert opinion |
Probability to develop C. difficile, % | 2.3 (1.8; 2.7) | Calculation based on Lenoir-Wijnkoop 2014 [17] |
Probability of a first recurrence, % | 22 (18; 26) | Lenoir-Wijnkoop 2014 [17] |
Probability of a second and third recurrence, % | 35 (28; 42) | Lenoir-Wijnkoop 2014 [17] |
Duration of C. difficile episode, days | 10 (2;15) | Shen 2017 [22]; range based on expert opinion |
C. difficile episodes in which patient is at home, % | 20 (16; 24) | Assumption based on expert opinion |
Duration of C. difficile hospitalization, days | 7.8 (1.0; 60.0) | Bartsch 2012 [23], Steuten 2018 [24], Lenoir-Wijnkoop 2014 [17], Feuerstadt 2020 [25], Champredon 2020 [26]. Upper range based on expert opinion. |
Duration of recovery period after C. difficile hospitalization, days | 7.8 (1.0; 60.0) | Assumption same length as hospitalization |
Probability to die from C. difficile until 30 days after each 30-day C. difficile episode, % | 3.5 (2.8; 4.2) | |
C. difficile patients requiring care during and/or after C. difficile episode, % | 30 (20; 40) | Assumption, range based on expert opinion |
Number of days C. difficile patients require care during and/or after C. difficile episode | 7.8 (1; 15.6) | Assumption same length as hospitalization |
Hours of informal care needed per day by C. difficile patients | 3.6 (1.0; 7.2) | Based on proxy diseases. Asmus-Szepesi 2014 [29], Timonet-Andreu 2018 [30], Costa 2013 [31], Jowsey 2013 [32], Dunbar 2018 [33] |
RSV | ||
Vaccine efficacy, % | 70 (50; 100) | Cromer 2017 [18] |
Employment rate of UK population age 16 to 64 years, % employed for one hour or more per week | 76 (61; 92) | ONS 2020 [34] |
Annual number of GP visits per year per child at risk (without vaccine), children aged below 5 | 1.2 (0.5; 0.19) | Cromer 2017 [18] |
Number of working days lost due to GP consultation for RSV, children aged below 5 | 0.6 (0.3; 1.0) | |
Number of working days lost due to RSV infections without hospitalization, children aged below 5 | 3.3 (1.3; 14.0) | Acedo 2010 [38], Regnier 2013 [39], Ginsberg 2018 [37], upper range: CDC 2018 [40]. |
Average GP consultations per RSV episode, children aged below 5 | 1.5 (1.2; 1.8) | Assumption based on elicited expert opinion |
Number of working days lost due to RSV hospitalization, children aged below 5 | 5.3 (1.0; 13.3) | Pouwels 2016 [35], Regnier 2013 [39], Acedo 2010 [38, 41], Lee 2018, Ginsberg 2018 [37], Leidy 2005 [42], McLaurin 2016 [43]. Upper range based on standard deviation reported by Leidy 2005. |
Number of annual hospital admissions (without vaccination) per child at risk under 5 years | 0.090 (0.007; 0.011) | Cromer 2017 [18] |
Number of working days lost due to recovery period at home after hospitalization | 5.3 (1.0; 10.6) | Ginsberg 2018 [37]. Upper range is twice the base case value. |
Mortality rate 0–5 months (in-hospital deaths), % | 0.20 (0.16; 0.02) | Shi 2017 [44] |
Mortality rate 6–11 months (in-hospital deaths), % | 0.09 (0.72; 1.08) | Shi 2017 [44] |
Mortality rate 12–59 months (in-hospital deaths), % | 0.07 (0.06; 0.08) | Shi 2017 [44] |
Cost Data | ||
Productivity losses, per day | £163.0 (£130.24; 195.36) | OECD 2020 [45], ONS 2020 [46]; range based on percentage change. |
Value of informal care work forgone of adults age 65+, per year | £3,326 (£2,661; £3,991) | Franklin and Hochlaf 2018 [47]; range based on percentage change. |
Time of informal caregivers, per year, opportunity cost method | £20.35 (£16.28; £24.42) | OECD 2020 [45], ONS 2020 [46]; range based on percentage change. |
Healthcare costs, C. difficile - Without vaccination program - With vaccination program* | £185 £165 | Lenoir-Wijnkoop 2014 [17] |
Healthcare costs, RSV - Without vaccination program - With vaccination program* | £99 £193 | Cromer 2017 [18] |